PUT the word Bitcoin into Google and you get (in Britain, at least) four adverts at the top of the list: "Trade Bitcoin with no fees", "Fastest Way to Buy Bitcoin", "Where to Buy Bitcoins" and "Looking to Invest in Bitcoins.". 在谷歌的搜索栏里输入比特币，按回车，搜索结果的前四条都是广告，比如“免费交易比特币”，“购买比特币最便捷的方式”，“哪里去买比特币”和“想要投资比特币吗”。
Travelling to work on the tube this week, your blogger saw an ad offering readers the chance to "Trade Cryptos with Confidence". 本周在去工作的地铁上刷微博，看到一条广告“私密交易电子货币”。
A lunchtime BBC news report visited a conference where the excitement about Bitcoins (and blockchain) was palpable. 吃午饭的时候，看到BBC报道关于比特币和区块链的会议，人们的兴奋之情，溢于言表。
比特币的在网上线下受到的报道，真是铺天盖地。
区块链是比特币的核心，是所有交易的公共账簿。区块链构建了互联网上的信任。因为有公共账簿，所有的比特币的发行和交易对所有持币者可见，比特币的交易和发行才是透明的。
All this indicates that Bitcoin has reached a new phase. 这标志着比特币进入了新阶段。
The stockmarket has been trading at high valuations, based on the long-term average of profits, for some time. But there is nothing like the same excitement about shares as there was in the dotcom bubble of 1999-2000. That excitement has shifted to the world of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. 没错，基于对长期的利好的预期，股市有时在高估值的区间交易。但是，世纪末的互联网泡沫时的那种兴奋劲儿，很少再现。而今，那种兴奋劲儿转向了比特币和以太坊。
以太坊是能在区块链上实现智能交易的系统，能产生以太币，和比特币类似。最近也大涨了五十倍。
A recent column focused on the rise of initial coin offerings, a way for companies to raise cash without the need for a formal stockmarket listing - investors get tokens (electronic coins) in businesses that have not issued a full prospectus. 一条最近的专栏评论关注了比特币的供应的增长，发行比特币是公司们不上市就能获得资金的方法。投资者们在一些公司如同买股票一样比特币，即使这些出售比特币的公司没有正式招股说明书和业绩的支撑。
These tokens do not normally give equity rights. Remarkably, as many as 600 ICOs are planned or have been launched. 这些代币不附带实物资产的权益，但是人们仍然趋之若鹜。如果股票的IPO一样，基于区块链的代币ICO已经被策划或举办了六百多场。参与了ICO的人能获得以后开发出的代币。
This enthusiasm is both the result, and the cause, of the sharp rise in the Bitcoin chart in recent months. 这种热情既是近几个月比特币暴涨的原因，也是结果。
The latest spike was driven by the news that the Chicago Mercantile Exchange will trade futures in bitcoin; a derivatives contract based on a notional currency.最新的一次暴涨是被芝加哥商品交易所将要推出比特币期货的消息。这是基于概念性货币的一种派生性合约。
芝加哥商品交易所是世界上最大的商品交易所，它把比特币列入交易名录，就像深闺人未识的村姑被帝王选了妃一样，让比特币一下子获得了某种官方身份认同。
More people will trade in Bitcoin and that means more demand, and thus the price should go up. 越来越多的人会以比特币交易，这意味着需求增加了，所以价格应当升高。
But what is the appeal of Bitcoin? There are really three strands; the limited nature of supply (new coins can only be created through complex calculations, and the total is limited to 21m); fears about the long-term value of fiat currencies in an era of quantitative easing; and the appeal of anonymity. 但是比特币的吸引力在哪里？一般认为有三个：
有限的供应（新的比特币只能通过复杂的计算产生，并且总量被限制在2100万枚）
在量化宽松的时代，对法定货币贬值的恐惧
隐秘性
The last factor makes Bitcoin appealing to criminals (although this is even more true of cash). 隐秘性让比特币十分受罪犯的青睐，虽然纸币也有同样功能。
These three factors explain why there is some demand for Bitcoin but not the recent surge. 以上三个因素解释了对比特币存在的需求，但是无法解释最近的暴涨。
The supply details have if anything deteriorated (rival cryptocurrencies are emerging); the criminal community hasn't suddenly risen in size; and there is no sign of general inflation. 供应并没有出问题（竞争性电子代币也开始出现）；犯罪团伙也没有大规模增长；经济领域也没有大规模通胀的迹象。
A possible explanation is the belief that blockchain, the technology that underlines bitcoin, will be used across the finance industry.一个可能的解释是，人们认为支撑比特币的区块链技术会大规模应用于金融领域。
But you can create blockchains without having anything to do with bitcoin; the success of the two aren't inextricably linked.但是，人们可以在不涉及比特币的情况下创造区块链，比特币和区块链并没有内在联系。
A much more plausible reason for the demand for Bitcoin is that the price is going up rapidly (see chart). 一个更可信的解释是，因为比特币价格在攀升（如图）
As Charles Kindleberger, a historian of bubbles, wrote：There is nothing so disturbing to one's wellbeing and judgment as to see a friend get rich。如一个研究经济泡沫的历史学家所写：没有什么比看到朋友富起来更能干扰一个人的幸福感和判断的了。
People are not buying Bitcoin because they intend to use it in their daily lives. Currencies need to have a steady price if they are to be a medium of exchange. 人们买比特币，并不是为了日常交易。一种货币，如果要成为交易的媒介，它必须有稳定的价格。
Buyers do not want to exchange a token that might jump sharply in price the next day; sellers do not want to receive a token that might plunge in price. 购买者们不想用一种第二天能大幅升值的代币去交易，卖主们也不愿意接受第二天可能会大跌的代币。
As Bluford Putnam and Erik Norland of CME wrote芝加哥商品交易所的两个逗比写道：
Wouldn’t you have regretted paying 20 bitcoins for a $40,000 car in June 2017 only to see the same 20 bitcoins valued at nearly $100,000 by October of the same year? 如果你用20个比特币在2017年4月买了辆4万美元的车，但是在同年10月发现20个比特币值10万美元了。你会不会后悔的肠子都青了？
Indeed, the chart is on a log scale to show some of the huge falls, as well as increases, that have occurred in bitcoin's history. As the old saying goes "Up like a rocket, down like a stick." 上图只是记录了比特币在指数级别上的上涨和下跌，平常的小幅涨跌并没有显示。就像一句谚语所说“如火箭般上涨，男人进入贤者时间般下跌”
People are buying Bitcoin because they expect other people to buy it from them at a higher price; the definition of the greater fool theory. 人民买比特币只因为他们觉得会有人出更高的价格把比特币买走，这就是博傻理论的定义。
Someone responded to me on Twitter by implying the fools were those who werenot buying; everyone who did so had become a millionaire. 有人在推特上表示，没买比特币的人才傻呢。每个买比特币的人都成了百万富翁。
But it is one thing to become a millionaire on paper, or in "bits"; it is another to be able to get into a bubble and out again with your wealth intact. 但是，在纸面上或者比特币账户里成为百万富翁是一回事，能带着资产脱套出来是另一回事。
If everyone tried to realise their bitcoin wealth for millions, the market would dry up and the price would crash; that is what happened with the South Sea bubbles. 如果每个人都想从比特币中获得财富，市场便会枯竭，比特币的价格将会崩溃。如同17世纪英国的南海泡沫事件。
南海公司的股票在1720年初用6个月涨了700%，之后在5个月跌回原价。国王和牛顿都陷入其中。牛顿感叹“我能计算出天体的运行轨迹，却难以预料到人们的疯狂”。
And because investors know that could happen, there is every incentive to sell first. When the crash comes, and it cannot be too far away, it will be dramatic. 因为投资者们都知道价格的崩溃会发生，所以他们有首先脱手的动机。当崩溃发生时，相信不会太远，我们有好戏看了。
